The 16:23 Newmark EBF Fillies’ Handicap at Ascot brings together a fascinating blend of progressive three-year-olds and battle-hardened older mares over 1m4f on good-to-firm ground.

With several runners arriving in winning form and others bringing Listed-class credentials to the table, this Class 3 contest looks a stronger race than the grade might initially suggest.

Hoseki Looks the One to Beat

William Haggas saddles the lightly raced Hoseki, who arrives seeking a hat-trick after victories at Redcar and Chester. Her latest success came on handicap debut, where she showed a willing attitude and suggested there was plenty more to come.

The daughter of Saxon Warrior has raced only four times and her pedigree strongly suggests this step up to 1m4f could unlock further improvement. Carrying just 8st 2lb thanks to the generous weight-for-age allowance, she combines a progressive profile with one of the most powerful yards in the country.

She is a worthy favourite and sets the standard among the younger generation.

Nochebuena Represents a Serious Threat

Ralph Beckett’s Nochebuena has a remarkably similar profile. After showing promise as a juvenile, she has taken significant steps forward this season, finishing second at Haydock before opening her account over this trip at Doncaster.

That victory came in convincing style and there is every reason to believe she remains ahead of her mark entering handicap company for the first time. With only four career starts, she remains one of the least exposed runners in the field and rates as one of the major dangers to the favourite.

Incensed Brings Proven Class

While the market is likely to focus on the improving three-year-olds, Incensed brings the strongest established form into the race.

Amanda Perrett’s five-year-old finished third in a Listed contest at Goodwood earlier this season, form which has worked out particularly well. She subsequently contested the highly competitive Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot, where her midfield finish was far from disgraced against stronger opposition than she faces here.

Unlike many of her rivals, Incensed does not need to improve to be competitive. If the younger fillies fail to progress as expected, she could easily capitalise.

Folk Pageant Can Bounce Back

Charlie Johnston’s Folk Pageant enjoyed a tremendous spring campaign, winning four of her first five starts of the season, including the prestigious Lester Piggott Handicap at Epsom.

Her disappointing effort in the Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot is easy enough to forgive given the intensity of that contest. She now steps up to 1m4f for the first time and her pedigree suggests the extra distance could bring about further improvement.

At likely each-way odds, she makes plenty of appeal.

Others Have Questions to Answer

Dojin has progressed well on the all-weather and shaped respectably when runner-up on her turf debut at Newmarket. She is not discounted but may require another career-best effort.

Sibling Rivelry has been admirably consistent in lower-grade handicaps but faces a much tougher assignment here, while Lady Ridgewood needs to prove that recent signs of improvement can be built upon after a difficult start to the season.

Pace and Race Shape

The race lacks an abundance of obvious front-runners and could develop into a steadily run tactical affair. That scenario may favour horses capable of travelling strongly and producing a sharp turn of foot in the straight.

Such conditions should suit Hoseki and Nochebuena, while Incensed’s experience and tactical versatility could also prove valuable if the pace proves muddling.

Verdict

This looks a compelling clash between proven class and untapped potential.

Hoseki possesses the strongest improvement profile in the field and is expected to relish the move up to 1m4f, making her the most likely winner. Nochebuena rates the chief danger, while Incensed appeals as the value alternative thanks to her superior level of established form.

Predicted 1-2-3

1. Hoseki
2. Incensed
3. Nochebuena

Best Bet

Hoseki

Value Bet

Incensed

Each-Way Play

Folk Pageant