The 17:20 at Newmarket presents an intriguing Class 4 handicap for three-year-olds over seven furlongs, with several progressive types arriving in form and a number of lightly raced runners capable of further improvement.

At the head of the market sits Toastmaster, whose profile is difficult to fault. Since joining Michael Herrington, the gelding has taken a notable step forward, finishing third in large-field handicaps at York and Doncaster before gaining a deserved breakthrough victory at Doncaster last month. That success came over today’s trip on good-to-firm ground, and the handicapper’s modest 2lb rise looks far from punitive. With Oisin Murphy booked and conditions identical to those of his latest success, he sets the standard.

However, this is unlikely to be straightforward. Lion Of Mali has quietly built one of the most progressive profiles in the field. James Fanshawe’s gelding has won four of his six starts this season and arrives after another determined success at Sandown. The manner of that victory suggested there may still be more to come, particularly as he was forced to wait for room before finishing strongly. A 3lb rise may underestimate his current level of ability.

Another with a compelling profile is Sierra Sands, who returns to seven furlongs after an authoritative success over six furlongs at Newmarket two weeks ago. Ryan Moore retains the ride and the step back up in trip could unlock further improvement. His previous seven-furlong form is solid and he looks capable of defying a higher mark.

One of the more interesting improvers in the line-up is Flight Control. The Kevin and Lauren Frost-trained gelding caused a major surprise when winning on debut at Doncaster before continuing to run with credit in novice company. His first handicap start resulted in a close second behind Toastmaster, and with only four runs under his belt, he remains one of the least exposed horses in the race. Further progress would put him firmly in the picture.

Kimbara is another who appeals as a likely improver. Richard Spencer’s colt has shaped well in two handicap starts, finishing second at Sandown and third at Yarmouth. His consistency suggests a first career victory is not far away, and a strongly run seven furlongs could play perfectly to his strengths.

The likely pace appears set to come from Three Non Blondes, who raced prominently when third behind Toastmaster and Flight Control at Doncaster. While that form reads well, she may not enjoy the same tactical freedom here with several pace influences in the line-up. A stronger pace could leave her vulnerable late on.

Further down the market, Angel Gabriel represents a fascinating outsider. Ralph Beckett’s lightly raced gelding was making his handicap and seasonal debut when fourth behind Sierra Sands at this track last month. He may strip fitter for that run and retains significant upside given his limited experience.

The race contains depth throughout, with Aqua Bear capable of building on a recent Carlisle third and Calling A Star attempting to prove she can be as effective over seven furlongs as she is over six. However, both may need career-best efforts to trouble the principals.

From a race-shape perspective, the contest looks likely to be run at a genuine pace, which should favour runners able to settle just behind the leaders before producing a finishing effort in the closing furlong. That scenario appears tailor-made for Toastmaster and Lion Of Mali, while Kimbara and Flight Control could also be major beneficiaries.

Verdict

Toastmaster deserves favouritism after producing the strongest recent form in the field and remains open to further improvement despite finally shedding his maiden tag. Nevertheless, Lion Of Mali looks a serious threat given his progressive profile, while Flight Control and Kimbara rate as particularly interesting each-way alternatives.

Predicted 1-2-3

1. Toastmaster
2. Lion Of Mali
3. Kimbara

Best Value Bet

Lion Of Mali

Most Dangerous Improver

Flight Control

Each-Way Selection

Kimbara