A fascinating five-runner sprint handicap awaits at Chepstow, where recent course specialists Punchbowl Flyer and Savannah Smiles head the market, but the race may be set up perfectly for a closer.

Veteran Punchbowl Flyer arrives in excellent form after back-to-back victories at Chepstow and Ffos Las over 6f. Those wins came on good ground and demonstrated that he retains plenty of enthusiasm despite his advancing years. However, today’s drop back to the minimum trip on quicker ground asks a different question, and he may find things happening a little too quickly in the early stages.

Savannah Smiles is another who comes here in peak condition. Following a wind operation, she has steadily worked her way back to form and gained a deserved success at Lingfield last time. A previous placed effort over this course and distance confirms her suitability for the track, and if allowed an easy lead she could prove difficult to reel in. The concern is that she may not enjoy complete control of the pace in this small field.

That scenario could play directly into the hands of Dragon God, who shaped particularly well when runner-up over this course and distance last month. Still a maiden, he nevertheless has been knocking firmly on the door throughout the season and looks likely to get the strong pace he requires. With several rivals inclined to race prominently, he should be able to settle behind the speed before launching his challenge late.

So Smart is another course-and-distance performer who rarely runs a bad race at this level. He has become frustrating to win with but continues to hold his form and should once again be competitive for the minor honours.

The wildcard is River Edge, who returned from a lengthy absence with an encouraging third over this track and trip earlier this month. He travelled well before fitness appeared to give way late on and is entitled to improve significantly for that outing. While he still has something to prove, he is the runner with the most scope for progress.

Verdict

This could develop into a tactical sprint with enough pace on paper to favour a horse coming from just off the speed. Dragon God looks the one most likely to benefit from that setup and can gain a deserved first success. Savannah Smiles is feared most if able to dominate, while Punchbowl Flyer remains a major player despite conditions not looking quite as favourable as for his recent wins.

Prediction

1. Dragon God
2. Savannah Smiles
3. Punchbowl Flyer
4. So Smart
5. River Edge

Best Bet: Dragon God
Danger: Savannah Smiles
Value Angle: Dragon God
Dark Horse: River Edge