19:30 Epsom – Betfred Ladies’ Derby Handicap Preview

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A competitive eight-runner handicap rounds off the Epsom card, with several arriving in strong recent form and others looking to revive careers from attractive marks. The unique demands of Epsom’s undulating 1m4f and the forecast good-to-firm ground should ensure this is a fascinating tactical contest.

The progressive Damascus Steel heads the shortlist after a convincing success at Goodwood last month. Although the winning margin was only half a length, he travelled like the best horse throughout and appeared to have more in hand than the bare result suggests. A 3lb rise looks manageable and a likely prominent position could prove a major advantage around Epsom. If reproducing his latest effort, he sets a high standard.

Seeking a remarkable fifth consecutive turf victory is Pride Of Nepal, whose resurgence this season has been one of the stories of the summer. The veteran has rattled off wins at Windsor, Lingfield, Chepstow and Ripon, thriving under aggressive tactics and clearly enjoying fast ground. The handicapper has reacted, but confidence is a powerful weapon and another bold bid looks assured.

The market may be headed by Carnival Day, who boasts solid Epsom credentials and produced one of the strongest individual performances in the field when third here on his seasonal return. However, all of his victories have come over shorter distances and his record at 1m4f is less persuasive. While respected, he may not have as much margin for error as his likely position in the betting suggests.

Former Listed and Group-class performer Epictetus is an intriguing contender. He remains well treated on historical form and has shown enough in several handicap runs this season to suggest ability remains intact. The concern is consistency, with two below-par efforts mixed in among more encouraging displays. If bouncing back, he is certainly capable of making his presence felt.

Of the potential improvers, Naval Command is the most interesting. Ralph Beckett’s four-year-old remains a maiden after six starts but is lightly raced compared to most of these and retains scope to progress. His handicap form has been mixed, yet his Chester effort in June hinted that a race of this nature could be within reach if he settles and handles the track.

I’d Go Maniac enters calculations after a promising Windsor second on fast ground earlier in the season and remains relatively unexposed on turf. He has enough stamina for the trip and could outrun his odds if building on that effort.

Shahbaz is another who cannot be dismissed entirely. He ran well over course and distance from a higher mark last year and is now attractively handicapped. The question is whether he can return from a five-month absence ready to exploit that opportunity.

Meanwhile, Jodhpur Blue has been knocking on the door on the all-weather but remains without a win since his maiden success and still has to prove he truly stays this far.

Verdict

Damascus Steel looks the runner with the strongest combination of current form, suitable conditions and further improvement to come. Pride Of Nepal’s winning streak demands respect and he appeals as the chief danger, while Epictetus could easily outrun his odds if rediscovering some of his old class.

Predicted 1-2-3

1. Damascus Steel
2. Pride Of Nepal
3. Epictetus

Best Value: Pride Of Nepal
Most Likely Winner: Damascus Steel
Dark Horse: Naval Command

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