The withdrawal of Oaks heroine Thundering On has transformed this year’s Juddmonte Irish Oaks from a race centred around one outstanding filly into a fascinating and competitive Group 1. What looked like a straightforward rematch now appears wide open, with several progressive fillies holding realistic claims of landing Classic honours.

At the head of the market is Earth Shot, whose narrow victory in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot has become the standout piece of staying form in the field. William Haggas’ filly has improved with every start, relished the step up to 1m4f and looks ideally suited by today’s conditions. A strong pace should allow James Doyle to settle her just behind the leaders before producing her late challenge in the long Curragh straight.

The Ribblesdale runner-up Johanna Walsh has every chance of reversing that Ascot form. Joseph O’Brien’s rapidly improving filly pushed Earth Shot all the way and remains open to further progress after just four career starts. If she settles well from the front or just off the pace, she should again be involved at the finish.

Perhaps the most intriguing contender is the unbeaten Sparan Nua. Jim Bolger’s filly has done nothing wrong in three starts, culminating in a smooth Group 3 success over this trip at Cork. Although she now faces a significant rise in class, her profile suggests there is considerably more improvement to come, making her one of the race’s most exciting contenders.

Another who appeals as a major improver is Rebel Moon. Also representing Joseph O’Brien, she has won both of her starts, including a Group 3 success at Naas, and now attempts 1m4f for the first time. Her pedigree offers encouragement that she’ll stay, and with so little exposed form, she possesses one of the highest ceilings in the field.

French raider Inis Mor brings strong international form after finishing third in the Prix de Diane. Her turn of foot over shorter distances is among the best in the race, but today’s extra two furlongs pose the biggest question. If she stays, she has the class to play a major role.

Aidan O’Brien fields a sizeable team headed by Amelia Earhart, who disappointed as favourite in the Oaks after winning the Cheshire Oaks impressively. Connections have always believed she is much better than her Epsom effort suggests, and a return to a more conventional track could spark a revival, although she still has something to prove after that below-par performance.

The remaining Ballydoyle fillies—Sugar Island, Composing, Beautify and Cameo—all have pieces of useful form but each arrives with questions to answer, whether regarding stamina, recent performances or the level of improvement required to trouble the principals.

Pace Verdict

Johanna Walsh and Sugar Island are the most likely pace influences, ensuring the race should be run at an honest gallop. That is expected to suit the proven stayers, particularly Earth Shot, while closers such as Sparan Nua, Rebel Moon and Inis Mor should all have opportunities to produce their finishing runs in the lengthy home straight.

Verdict

Without Thundering On, the race lacks a standout performer but gains considerably in competitiveness. Earth Shot sets the standard after her Ascot success and looks the most solid option, while Sparan Nua and Rebel Moon are the two unexposed fillies capable of making the leap into genuine Group 1 company. Johanna Walsh should again give an excellent account, and Inis Mor commands respect if seeing out the extra distance.

Prediction

1. Earth Shot
2. Sparan Nua
3. Rebel Moon
4. Johanna Walsh

Best Bet: Earth Shot

Value Bet: Rebel Moon

Dark Horse: Sparan Nua