Spain and Argentina meet in a World Cup final that brings together the tournament’s most complete team and its most resilient.

Spain enter as narrow favourites after an outstanding campaign built on control, aggressive pressing and defensive reliability. They are unbeaten in 37 matches and have conceded only once during the tournament, underlining how difficult they have been to disrupt. Their 2–0 semi-final victory over France was another demonstration of their balance: Spain can dominate possession, but they also defend transitions better than many possession-heavy sides.

Rodri will be central to Spain’s chances. His positioning allows the attacking players to take risks while giving Spain protection against Argentina’s counter-attacks. Lamine Yamal provides the one-against-one threat, while Mikel Oyarzabal’s movement could be important against an Argentine defence that will try to remain compact. Yamal and Pedro Porro had been training separately as a precaution, although both were expected to be available.

Argentina’s greatest strength is their ability to remain competitive when the match is going against them. They came from behind to beat England 2–1 in the semi-final and have repeatedly shown that they are comfortable suffering without the ball. Lionel Scaloni’s side are unlikely to try to match Spain for possession. Instead, they will defend narrowly, contest second balls and look for Lionel Messi between Spain’s midfield and defensive lines.

Messi remains Argentina’s decisive figure. Spain may control most of the game, but Argentina only need to create one or two situations in which he can receive facing goal. Set pieces could also offer the defending champions a route into the contest, particularly if Spain struggle to turn possession into clear chances.

The key tactical question is whether Argentina can escape Spain’s press. If they continually lose the ball close to their own penalty area, Spain should eventually create enough opportunities to win. However, if Argentina can draw Spain forward and release their attackers into space, the final could become far more uncomfortable for the favourites.

Finals are often cautious, and Argentina’s experience makes a comfortable Spain victory unlikely. Spain should have more of the ball and territory, but Argentina are capable of keeping the contest close until the final stages.

Correct-score prediction: Spain 2–1 Argentina.

Spain’s control and greater overall balance give them the edge, although the match may not be settled until late.