An ordinary Class 6 handicap on paper, but a competitive one. There is little to separate the principals on official ratings and several arrive with recent form that gives them realistic claims. The likely winning performance looks around 62–63 on private ratings, so race position and pace could prove more important than raw ability.

The pace is not obvious. Boubyan is the runner most likely to go forward from stall 1, while Albeyours and We’ve Got This have both raced prominently in the past without needing to lead. If Boubyan is allowed an uncontested lead, he could prove more dangerous than his odds suggest. If the pace is stronger than expected, it would play more into the hands of the hold-up horses, particularly Palmarian and Mariner.

Leading contenders

We’ve Got This sets the standard on recent form. Her close third in a Class 5 handicap at Thirsk reads well in the context of this race, she is proven over the mile and has already shown she handles Doncaster. She is not the easiest horse to win with, having often found one too good, but she is one of the most reliable runners in the field and should be in the firing line again.

Mariner is another with solid Doncaster credentials, having both won and finished a close second over course and distance. His recent Nottingham third confirmed he remains in form and the 3 lb claim leaves him attractively treated. He lacks a sharp turn of foot but is usually finishing his race well.

Albeyours arrives in excellent heart after winning at Carlisle and has an improving handicap profile. She remains fairly treated despite a 4 lb rise and David Egan is reunited with her. The question is whether she will stay a mile as effectively as she has been finishing her races over 7f.

Palmarian has found improvement since stepping up to a mile, winning at Leicester before chasing home the winner over this course and distance last week. He is clearly thriving but his hold-up style and widest draw could leave him vulnerable if the race develops into a tactical affair.

Interesting outsider

Boubyan is easy to overlook on recent form, but there are reasons to believe he could outrun his odds. The return to a mile looks in his favour after weakening over 1m2f on his last two starts, and stall 1 offers the opportunity to dictate matters if ridden positively. His best historical form is stronger than many of today’s rivals and he appeals as the value alternative.

Others

Theme Park is very well handicapped on old form but has shown only limited signs of a revival and still has plenty to prove. Chilly Breeze is lightly raced and has dropped sharply in the weights, but his recent efforts leave him with questions to answer over the trip. Whiskey Pete was once capable of competing in much stronger handicaps but arrives on the back of four heavy defeats and would need a dramatic resurgence to feature.

Verdict

This looks a tightly knit Class 6 where there is little between the four principals. We’ve Got This brings the strongest recent form, Mariner has an excellent record at Doncaster, Albeyours is the progressive runner with upside if staying the mile, while Palmarian is respected despite a potentially awkward race setup.

The value angle may lie with Boubyan, whose likely front-running role and generous odds make him the most interesting each-way proposition.

Predicted finish

1. We’ve Got This
2. Mariner
3. Albeyours
4. Palmarian

Value: Boubyan (each-way)

Private race rating: 62