A small but competitive field of five lines up for this Class 4 nursery, and despite the lack of numbers there is no obvious standout. The market has correctly centred on Victory Gold, Flying Pirate and Waasil, with Metamouse capable of getting involved if improving again.

Victory Gold sets the standard on established form. After shaping well on debut at Ascot, he justified favouritism in a 7f novice at Lingfield, making all and quickening clear in professional fashion. An opening mark of 87 looks fair rather than generous, but he has already achieved the best form in the field and is the one they all have to beat.

Flying Pirate may prove the biggest danger. He won a Salisbury novice despite still looking green before finishing a close third in a much stronger Class 2 novice over the same course. That latest effort came despite being unruly beforehand, and he shaped as though today’s step up to 7f would suit. There is every chance he has more improvement to come than the favourite.

Waasil is another lightly raced colt with obvious scope. He improved markedly when stepping up to 7½f at Beverley, travelling smoothly before asserting inside the final furlong. Whether that form is quite as strong as it first appears remains open to debate, but he has the profile of a horse capable of progressing again now entering handicaps.

Metamouse should not be dismissed. His Chester novice success was followed by a respectable fourth in a strong Salisbury novice after an awkward start. That run ties in closely with Flying Pirate’s form and suggests he is not far behind the principals. If the extra furlong brings further improvement, he could easily outrun his odds.

Duke of Burgundy has won his latest start at Kempton and remains open to progress, but the strength of that form looks slightly below the level achieved by the leading trio. He will likely need another sizeable step forward to come out on top.

With only five runners, tactics could prove decisive. There is no guaranteed strong pace, and a steadily run race would place greater emphasis on positioning and finishing speed than outright stamina.

Private Ratings

– Victory Gold – 86
– Flying Pirate – 85
– Waasil – 84
– Metamouse – 83
– Duke of Burgundy – 80

Verdict

Victory Gold deserves favouritism on proven ability, but there is little margin for error from his handicap mark. Flying Pirate appeals as the runner with the greatest scope for improvement now tackling 7f and rates the value alternative. Waasil is respected as another progressive colt, while Metamouse looks capable of making the principals work harder than the betting suggests.

Predicted finishing order:

1. Victory Gold
2. Flying Pirate
3. Waasil
4. Metamouse
5. Duke of Burgundy

Projected race rating: 84 (strong Class 4 nursery).