A fascinating nine-runner Class 2 handicap in which the three-year-olds receive a generous weight-for-age allowance from their older rivals. The race lacks an obvious front-runner and that could prove just as important as the handicap marks, with several of the principals usually ridden patiently.
Al Azd sets the standard
Roger Varian’s Al Azd deserves favouritism after an excellent second in the King George V Handicap over this course and distance at the Royal meeting. Racing from midfield, he finished strongly to be beaten less than a length in one of the strongest three-year-old handicaps of the season. An 8 lb rise leaves him on a mark of 100, but he still receives the 11 lb age allowance and remains the horse with the best recent piece of form.
The question is whether the market has fully accounted for that performance. At around 11/8 he is the most likely winner, but he no longer looks obviously ahead of the handicapper.
Merveilleux Lapin brings untapped potential
The least exposed rival is Merveilleux Lapin, who has had only two British starts since arriving from Poland. She was narrowly beaten in a Windsor handicap before producing a perfectly respectable fourth in Listed company at Pontefract. Those efforts suggest she is already capable of competing at this level and, with so little racing behind her, further improvement is entirely plausible.
Theory Of Tides can build on encouraging return
Formerly trained by John and Thady Gosden, Theory Of Tides made an encouraging debut for Jamie Osborne when finishing second in a competitive Sandown handicap earlier this month. That effort matched the level of his best form last season and hinted that a return to 1m4f could bring further progress. His two previous defeats over this distance came in a Group 2 and on heavy ground, making them easy enough to forgive.
French Duke seeks to bounce back
French Duke has stronger established handicap form than his recent Royal Ascot disappointment suggests. His York third last summer and Meydan victory in January showed he is capable of running to a genuine Class 2 level, while the reapplication of a hood may help after he raced too freely in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap. If settling better, he has the ability to make his presence felt.
Others have questions to answer
Study Of Words remains something of an enigma. A wide-margin maiden winner for Charlie Appleby, he has disappointed in both handicap starts and now drops back from an unsuccessful attempt over 1m6½f. This trip could prove ideal, but he still needs to demonstrate that he can translate his potential into meaningful handicap form.
Flying Frontier is a proven Sandown specialist who arrives after another respectable effort there, although he has yet to convince that 1m4f is his optimum distance.
Fantasy Believer retains ability despite advancing years and Oisin Murphy is an eye-catching booking, but he is likely to need a stronger pace than looks probable.
Dancing In Paris has slipped to an attractive mark after a disappointing start to the season but needs to rediscover last year’s staying handicap form.
Elsass has improved markedly this season and is one of the few likely pace angles in the race, though this represents another rise in class and his latest efforts suggest the handicapper may have caught up.
Verdict
Al Azd brings the strongest recent form and is the deserved favourite, but this is not a one-horse race. Merveilleux Lapin has considerable scope after only two British starts, while Theory Of Tides looks capable of taking another step forward after an encouraging stable debut. French Duke is respected as the best of the exposed older horses if returning to his York and Meydan level.
Predicted finishing order
Al Azd
Theory Of Tides
Merveilleux Lapin
French Duke
Private race rating: 101 (solid Class 2 handicap).