A competitive six-runner Class 5 handicap brings together a mix of progressive three-year-olds and exposed handicappers, with the race likely to be decided by whether the improvers can take another step forward.

The tactical shape looks straightforward. Alterity has made the running in all four career starts and is expected to adopt the same positive tactics again. If allowed an uncontested lead, she could prove difficult to reel in. Brighlee is tactically versatile and should be well placed to challenge, while Zarco is likely to be ridden more patiently on his handicap debut. Shadow Brigade, Saxophonist and Time Twister are all more accustomed to being delivered later.

Alterity

Charlie Johnston’s filly arrives in winning form after making all in a Ripon maiden, where she travelled strongly before quickening clear to score with authority. She has progressed with every start, her opening handicap mark of 74 looks fair rather than punitive, and her front-running style could be a major asset in a small field. She sets the standard on current profile and still appears capable of further improvement.

Brighlee (FR)

David Menuisier’s filly brings arguably the strongest recent handicap form, having finished a close third at Newbury despite suffering trouble in running. That effort suggested she is capable of performing to a mark in the mid-70s, although she is now a seven-race maiden and looks more exposed than the selection. She is a solid, dependable contender and rates the principal danger.

Zarco

Harry Eustace’s lightly raced gelding is the race’s most intriguing runner. His juvenile form does not yet match the two principals, but his opening mark of 67 gives him room to improve considerably. Stepping up to 1m2½f for his handicap debut should suit his pedigree and racing style. The market expects improvement, and while that is entirely possible, he still has to prove it on the track.

Shadow Brigade (IRE)

Second-time over this trip after an encouraging handicap debut at Windsor, where he finished just over a length behind after travelling into contention before hanging under pressure. First-time blinkers could help him concentrate, and he has more scope than some of his rivals. He looks capable of outrunning double-figure odds and is an interesting each-way alternative.

Saxophonist (IRE)

A consistent performer who usually runs close to his mark without finding enough to win. His latest Ripon effort contained excuses after meeting interference, but overall he looks a fairly exposed low-70s handicapper. He should run another honest race but may lack the improvement required to beat the principals.

Time Twister

Returns from a lengthy absence after showing only modest juvenile form. His current mark of 57 accurately reflects what he has achieved so far, and he would need to improve dramatically to trouble the leading contenders.

Verdict

This looks an ordinary but competitive Class 5 handicap likely to require a performance in the mid-70s to win. Alterity has the most appealing combination of progressive profile, tactical advantage and recent form, and she is taken to make all once again. Brighlee rates the chief threat on established handicap form, while Zarco is respected as the potential improver if stepping forward on his seasonal return.

Predicted finishing order

1. Alterity
2. Brighlee (FR)
3. Zarco
4. Shadow Brigade (IRE)
5. Saxophonist (IRE)
6. Time Twister

Private race rating: 74