A compact field of six lines up for this year’s Tyros Stakes, and while it lacks an established Group performer, it brings together several progressive colts with the potential to develop into Pattern-class juveniles.

The market is headed by Aix La Chapelle, who represents the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard with Ryan Moore taking the ride. A son of Justify, he made a winning debut over this trip at the Curragh, travelling prominently before asserting in the closing stages. The bare form of that maiden does not yet look exceptional, but Ballydoyle juveniles are renowned for improving markedly from their first to second start. If he takes the expected step forward, he sets the standard.

The chief threat may come from Folsom Blues, whose profile is arguably the strongest on what has already been achieved. After shaping with promise over 6f on debut, he ran away with a 7f maiden at Gowran, making all and drawing clear by 7½ lengths. The winning margin may flatter the form slightly, but it was an authoritative display and confirmed that the step up to 7f suited him well. If he reproduces that effort on quicker ground, he looks the principal danger.

Florida Bay brings the strongest established form. Third on debut over this course and distance before winning at Fairyhouse, he was then far from disgraced when fourth in a Listed contest over a mile at Naas. The return to 7f should play to his strengths and his official mark of 95 makes him the benchmark against which the less-exposed runners can be judged. The question is whether he has as much improvement left as the two market leaders.

Joseph O’Brien also saddles Nail House, who showed a willing attitude when making a successful debut at Fairyhouse. He had to work hard to prevail and today’s opposition is considerably stronger, but natural progression could see him run with credit.

Supreme Lord, third behind Nail House on debut, was beaten only a length and shaped with promise throughout. He should improve for the experience, although he will likely need a more substantial leap forward than his rivals if he is to trouble the principals.

The sole debutant, Tio Joao, faces a daunting introduction. He has a respectable pedigree, but taking on experienced maiden winners in a Group 3 first time out represents a stiff assignment.

Verdict

This looks a solid rather than outstanding renewal. Florida Bay sets the proven standard, while Folsom Blues has produced the most visually impressive performance so far. However, the expectation of significant second-start improvement makes Aix La Chapelle the one to beat, particularly with Ryan Moore in the saddle.

Predicted finishing order

1. Aix La Chapelle
2. Folsom Blues
3. Florida Bay
4. Nail House
5. Supreme Lord
6. Tio Joao

Private performance projections

Horse| Projected Rating
Aix La Chapelle| 104
Folsom Blues| 102
Florida Bay| 100
Nail House| 97
Supreme Lord| 94
Tio Joao| 84 (tentative)

Projected race rating: 102 – an ordinary to solid Group 3, with the potential for the winner to advertise himself as a genuine Group performer if producing the expected improvement.